I just read this GigaOm blog post on the top 10 technology trends for next 5 years according to venture capitalists (VC’s). I fully agree with the title, some are a bit wacky at first sight! But most make total sense and are also currently picked up by the big IT firms, like IBM.
Some though are not picked up by the big IT firms, but that does not necessarily exclude these trends from becoming a reality. Recently I watched an episode of Tegenlicht, an award winning Dutch TV program, on “clean tech”. VC’s do spend a lot of time on investigating and researching the possible future before investing into it. It’s about long term trends and forecasts.
An interesting point that was made in the episode is that only a few decades ago most innovation was driven by the large firms in specific countries. Now, with the globalization and the Internet, innovation is driven from all over the world. And each innovation potentially leads to another one somewhere else in the world. Most interesting fact: 60% of these innovations come from small companies and start-ups. So no big firms needed it seems…
Anyway, back to the top 10:
- Rise of bioinformatics
- Massive sensors and data
- Zero margin cost education
- The New Hardware: Bits of Atoms
- Radical globalization of social commerce
- Moore’s Law accelerates beyond silicon
- It’s just the venture cycle
- Gamification of everything
- Shift towards technocaticy
- All vehicles go electric
Numbers 1 (Research like Watson), 2 (Big Data), 4 (Research on Quantum Computing), 5 (Smarter Commerce) are on the IBM radar. Actually, one can argue that all of them are in some way on the IBM radar as the computing power behind the trends will most likely be cloud computing.
Then there are numbers 3 (think of TED-Ed and iTunes U), 8 (game theory is being used more often in all sorts of ways) and 9 (a bit of Democratization and Big Data).
Number 6, not sure what to do with this one. But I doubt that it will become a reality within the next 5 years.
Finally, have you also recognized the clean tech in the list (it’s number 10).